Articles

Professional Time Wasters 

The Private Sector 

Car-Sharing Vehicles Doubling as Sheltered Bus Stops 

Pulling Your Goalie Earlier Against Exhausted Opponents  

The Intersection of Yonge and Danforth 

The Holy Month of Sports Begins 

The Three Card Monty 

Guest Post: The Universal Spider

A Demographic Overview of the World 

The Passenger-Driven Bus 

Bus/Bike Lanes: Can I Interest You in a Time-Share?

Goalies and Garbage Time 

Too Much Heaven

Everyone for Tennis?

Argentina in 2019

Countries to Watch: El Salvador

The Birthplaces of China’s Leadership

The Geopolitics of Saudi Arabia

Morocco the Outlier 

Like Night and Day

North Korea and the Olympics Curse

Don’t Discount Reunification

North Korea in the Next Five Years

Trump and the Turks

Spanish Geo-Economics: Past, Present, and Future

Ontario: The Borderland Economy

In Politics, the Triple Crown is Even More Elusive

Geopolitics in Canada

Examining China’s M&A Boom

The Father, Son, and Holy Mackinaw

Geopolitics within China

Political Dynasties and their Discontents

Secession Procession

Should Hockey Fans Be Keynesians? 

Guest Post: Babbit, by Sinclair Lewis

Toronto’s Railways to Nowhere

Light Rail and Autonomous Vehicles in Toronto 

Upstairs, Downstairs

Robots and NHL Expansion

The League of the Overshadowed

Peace and Prosperity in Israel’s Future?

Deep State vs Deep South

The Witching Hour

A Look Back At Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy

Presidential Beginnings and Regionalism in America

When Autonomous Vehicles Leave the Nest

Complacency over Coal’s Collapse: Five Factors to Consider 

Fasten Your Snowbelts: Technology and the Great Lakes

Guest Post: Political Turnover in the United States 

Labour Strikes in China

Passing Gas: 10 Winners and Losers of the Panama Canal Expansion

Eurozone Geopolitics (and the Future of “Czechia”)

Seniors Discount? Oil Prices and Old Rulers

Expect the Unexpected: 10 Reasons North Korea Could Finally Change Course

US Politics: The Real Swing State

The Other Greek Economy

The Provincials

The Physics of Japanese Economics

Bricks, Mortar, and Wireless Headphones

The Geopolitics of Cheap Energy

Northeast Asian Trade

Forest and Farm 

Geopolitics in Iraq

Islands of the Pacific

The Return of the Atlantic

Europe’s Mountain Lands

The Eternal Question

Germany at a Crossroads 

Satellite Geopolitics in Eastern Europe

Canada Goes to Vote! 

US Politics: Unique New York

Turkish-Russian Geopolitics

Why Iraq is Still So Important

The Day After Tomorrow, in Morocco

Europe and Arabia: A Geopolitical Perspective

China’s Hidden Regionacracy

Legal US Immigration

Russia, Turkey, and Greece: Clash of “Civilizations” 

Motor Vehicle Production

Capital Idea

5 Challenges for Canada’s Economy in 2015

New Website: Investors Aloud

America’s Domestic Environmental Geopolitics

10 Consequences of US-Iranian Reengagement

Why Israel Won’t Let the West Bank Go 

The Geopolitics of Ukraine 

Internal Chinese Geopolitics, part 1

Iran’s Weakening Position

 Greek and Mediterranean Islands

Estonia in 2015: Energy, the Euro, and Elections

Germany’s Trade Empire

The 10 Largest Relative Trade Networks 

The PIPEs are Calling?

New Jersey: The Densest State

China’s North-South Split

The Not-So-Tiny Baltics

Now That’s A Basin!

Regional Canadian Politics 

Why Iraq?

America and Argentina

The Uncertain Future of Bulgaria

Turkish-Israeli Geopolitics

Japan from 1995 to 2035

What if Syria Fragments

10 Myths About the Global Economy

You Didn’t Build That

Advertisements
Standard
North America

Professional Time Wasters

Usually, the goal of a basketball game is to outscore your opponent. There are certain cases, however, where a second goal is also at play: buying time for your best players to get a much-needed rest on the bench during a playoff game.

Star players tend to play many more minutes per game during the playoffs. The games are more important, there are no games played on back-to-back nights, and there are fewer flights between games. In this year’s playoffs, the leaders in minutes per game, Paul George, Damian Lillard, and Nikola Jokic, have been playing 40 minutes per game. (Lillard and Jokic played 58 and 56 minutes in a quadruple overtime game). Lebron James’ career playoff minutes per game is 42, meanwhile. In Lebron’s 21 career playoff elimination games, he averages 45 minutes per game.

It would be ideal if, during those few minutes of game-time when these superstars are resting, their backup players would enter the game and consistently outscore their opponents. But that is not the only way a bench lineup might be effective. They could, perhaps, also be effective by simply slowing down the pace of the game, shooting late in the shot clock, grabbing offensive rebounds to reset the shot clock, or drawing fouls that stop the clock altogether.

Consider two hypothetical bench lineups. One is an above-average bench lineup which usually outscores its opponent, but occasionally gets outscored by its opponents by a lot. The other is a merely average bench lineup which outscores its opponent only fifty percent of the time, but, because it excels at slowing down the game, almost never gets outscored by its opponent by a lot.

On teams which have dominant starting lineups and superstars, the merely average lineup might actually be preferable to the above-average lineup, as it would almost never cough up a big lead created by its dominant starters. There is, moreover, the issue of $$: above-average players are in high demand, so they tend to cost a lot of money. Merely average players who excel only at slowing down the game are not in demand, and so might be purchased on the cheap.

Of course, this is not to say that teams should want their bench lineups to be merely average. But it does mean some teams might benefit from targeting certain skills and strategies for their benches: scoring late in the shot clock, offensive rebounding, drawing fouls, defending in such a way as to make opponents shoot later in the shot clock, and fouling well (for example, by fouling Ben Simmons in transition after your team’s attempt at offensive rebounding has failed, trying to take a charge but fouling instead).

This idea raises some interesting thought-experiment questions. For example:

-how much could you slow the pace of the game without sacrificing too much effectiveness? (The average possession length in the NBA this season ranged from OKC’s 12.9 seconds per possession to Cleveland’s 15.5 seconds per possession. In the playoffs, it has ranged from OKC’s 12.7 seconds to Denver’s 15.5).

-How high could you theoretically get your offensive rebounding percentage? (Denver had the highest offensive rebounding percentage this season, 30.8%. The highest in the playoffs has been Philadelphia, 31.2%).

-How much could you increase that without giving up too many transition opportunities? (The Clippers and Nuggets contested 70% of offensive rebounds in these playoffs; the Raptors only 46%).

-When and how often is it worthwhile to foul in transition to stop the clock? How often would fighting for offensive rebounds lead to a stopped-clock situation as a result of fouling, being fouled, a jump ball, or an out-of-bounds (with the refs looking at the replay to see who touched the ball last)?

Obviously, many of the skills that would allow a lineup to excel at slowing the pace of play would overlap with those that make basketball lineups good in general. But the overlap is far from a perfect one. By focusing not just on creating the best possible bench lineup, but also on creating the bench lineup most capable of wasting time, you might be able to free up roster spending in order to land the big fish superstars you need. All your bench has to do then is waste a handful or two of minutes, to let those superstars catch their breath.

 

 

Standard
North America

The Private Sector

How’s the bathroom business doing, Jim? Well, the profitability ratio stinks, but there’s a lot of liquidity.

Nothing is more common as having to go to the bathroom, yet there are few examples of for-profit bathrooms in our otherwise profit-oriented cities. Even though bathroom access is often bartered indirectly – “customers only” comes to mind – such access is almost never charged for outright.

Outside of sports arenas and shopping malls, bathrooms also tend to be quite small. This is understandable, given the high cost of commercial real estate. Nevertheless it runs somewhat counter to the natural economy of scale that is bathroom installation. Once you have already ripped up the floor and sorted out the plumbing, the cost of each additional toilet or sink may be comparatively low.

There are, perhaps, reasons to think that for-profit bathrooms will become more common soon:

  1. MicropaymentsTransaction costs are the scourge of any high-liquidity, low-margin market, and the bathroom business is no exception. If you are planning to charge a dollar (say) per person, then obviously you are not going to turn a profit if you have to hire somebody to man the till or pay a transaction fee to a payment systems company. Only with an automated, extremely low-cost payment system might for-profit bathrooms actually work.
  2. Bathroom AppsBy telling you where nearby bathrooms are, apps could allow bathrooms to be findable even if they are in relatively out-of-the-way locations where real estate is not so pricey: in basements, second floors, side streets, etc. Apps could also let people reserve the use of a bathroom immediately ahead of time, or at least check to see if there is a bathroom available.
  3. Transit TechAs transit systems introduce features like, for example, two-hour transfer passes, their passengers will be able to get off a bus or train to use bathroom without being charged a double fare. Transit apps can also help in this regard: passengers can now check to see when the next bus is coming, and so can estimate whether or not they will have time to use the bathroom without missing it. This will also allow passengers to wait indoors for the bus when the weather is bad; and in some cases, perhaps, do so near a for-profit bathroom.
  4. RobotsIt might also be possible to automate much, or at least part of, the process of cleaning a bathroom, which could go a long way towards making a public bathroom profitable. Expensive bathroom cleaning robots might also make public bathrooms more of an economy of scale; the toilet-to-robot ratio would increase the more toilets a bathroom has. 
  5. Babies, Boomers, Bloggers

    [Okay, I may be tipping my hand here by including bloggers in this group]. Demographics and technology really are changing where many people do (their) business. The Baby Boomers are getting older. Many of them are approaching partial or full retirement and seeking to work or relax more in public spaces close to their homes, rather than continue making long commutes five days a week. Mothers too (and sometimes fathers), with fewer children and better computers and careers than ever before, are spending more time in public spaces with their babies. They need places where they can breastfeed and change diapers, and bathrooms large enough to fit in strollers.

Of course, a profitable bathroom does not need to be a for-profit bathroom. It could instead be that bathrooms will become more common, cleaner, or less costly for the public sector to provide.

 

Standard
North America

The Car-Sharing Sheltered Bus Stop and Seasonal Bike Lane

In recent years there have been two excellent new technologies, car apps and transit apps, which have nevertheless been unable to successfully solve traffic problems. Transit apps, which tell you when buses or trains are coming and, in some cases, tell you how crowded each bus is*, are useful but are still no antidote to challenges such as getting to and from bus stops or waiting for buses in bad weather. Car apps, which can summon lifts or carpools or make it easy to rent a car, tend to do little or nothing to alleviate traffic jams, and can also be relatively costly or inconvenient, especially in bad weather when there are no vehicles nearby, or when demand for lifts outstrips supply.

*This is very useful because buses tend to bunch fairly close together, and the front bus in each grouping tends to be much more crowded than the buses behind them. With this information, people can simply wait a tiny bit longer to get on a less crowded bus, without taking the risk that the bus further behind will be just as crowded or will not arrive anytime soon.

What might be needed, therefore, is a way to use these new technologies to get to and from transit, especially in bad weather, and make it easier to wait for buses in bad weather, and do so without adding to traffic jams that block more efficient modes of transportation such as buses or streetcars or (in good weather) bikes.

Here, then, is a possible solution: have car-sharing cars double as sheltered bus stops in bad weather.

car2go-berlin-carsharing-smart-ladestationen-charging-stations-01-pixabay.png

Such a system could have a number of advantages:

  1. In suburban areas where people do not live near bus stops and where streets are not designed well for pedestrians, the car-sharing cars could be used to help people get to and from bus stops.
  2. In the event of an unexpected delay in the bus or streetcar system (e.g. a subway line is temporarily shut down or a streetcar line is temporarily obstructed, leading buses to become overcrowded) or if there is a sudden change in the weather (e.g. a sudden rainstorm), or if you have a personal emergency (e.g. you really have to go to the bathroom and your bus is late) you could have the option of simply paying to drive a car-sharing car to your destination
  3. the car-sharing car would not necessarily need to be a conventional car, but could instead be a tiny one-seater car, or an electric-assist pedal-car, or even an enclosed bicycle or tricycle. This would work very well on streets where there is a bike lane or a street-parking lane. Indeed, this would be ideal for a street in which a bike lane becomes a parking lane during winter. People in the winter want street parking so that they don’t have to worry about slipping on ice, and want sheltered bus stops where they can stay warm while they wait (often for a long time, since bus delays are more common in winter). When the weather is nice, on the other hand, people do not need street parking or sheltered bus stops, so the parking lane could instead become a bike lane. This bike lane could then be used not just by regular bicycles, but also by the car-share enclosed bicycles and tricycles and pedal-cars and one-seaters.
  4. The cars would not contribute too much to traffic jams or air pollution, as the cars would be used mainly to get to and from buses, and as most of the cars could be very small, lightweight, and possibly electric or pedal-powered or both.
  5. If they are electric, the car-sharing bus stop parking spots could perhaps double as charging stations. A car-sharing sheltered bus stop charging station might be an ideal charging station from both an economic and environmental point of view, because slow-charging batteries is better than fast-charging and as lightweight vehicles are far better than conventional electric cars
  6. The cars could perhaps also be vehicles that would facilitate carpooling. You could, for instance, have a car-sharing van or minibus that would serve as a sheltered bus  stop but could also be driven itself (if the bus or streetcar was running late, etc. etc.), if the passengers were willing to split the cost of driving it and if one of the passengers is willing and registered to drive it and then drop it off at another bus stop

It is not just car-sharing technologies that could make this idea viable, but also transit apps.

By having the cars equipped with these apps, people will able to use them as sheltered bus stops without needing to have a clear view of the horizon to see if a bus is approaching. Even though these cars would ideally be located immediately next to bus stops, the ability to know in advance when a bus is coming means that if necessary they could be located a bit further away from the bus stops, on an adjacent side street, without the risk of people missing their bus.

That might not even be needed though, since the car-sharing bus stops might not need to take up much more space than the current public bicycle-sharing systems often do, particularly if one-seaters or pedal-cars are used. (In Toronto, there are already 360 public bicycle-sharing stations, even though few people use them in the winter or during heat waves). People would then be able to use their transit passes to unlock the car’s door by prepaying their bus fare, so that the cars would not be misused too much.

So, if anyone influential happens to be reading this, please consider it the next time you are shivering or sweating at a bus stop. Oh, you don’t take the bus? The next time your Uber is stuck in traffic then.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Standard
North America

The Spiral of Death – Pulling Your Goalie Earlier Against Exhausted Opponents  

Most of us have heard the crude joke that ends in the punchline “We’ve already established the principle that you are a whore. Now we’re just haggling over the price”. Well, in hockey, I would like to argue for the principle that the best time to pull your goalie is when your opponents are physically exhausted from being stuck on the ice during an especially long shift.  Though obviously it is difficult to know how much earlier than usual a team would be wise to pull its goalie in order to take advantage of facing exhausted opponents, still I believe they should consider doing so at least somewhat earlier than usual. There are three reasons why:

  1. It is harder for them to score and easier for you to score

This sounds like circular reasoning, but really it might just be common sense: you want to pounce on your enemy when your enemy is weakest. When players are exhausted, it is harder for them to get the puck and score a cross-ice empty netter. (And, if they attempt to do so and miss, it will lead to an icing that will allow your team to bring on a fresh line against their exhausted one). Similarly, when they are exhausted it will be easier for your fresh-legged extra attacker to help your team get a high-quality scoring attempt.

  1. It is easier to get the extra attacker into the offensive zone

Coaches generally try to pull their goalies when their teams are already in the offensive zone, but they often fail to do so simply because holding onto the zone is so difficult in hockey that the opposing team is frequently able to clear the puck out before the extra attacker has time to get there himself. As a result, teams with their goalie pulled often waste precious time or give up an empty net goal trying to regain entry and get solidly set up within the offensive zone again. Against an exhausted line, in contrast, it is much easier to hold on to possession, so your extra attacker will more likely have time to join the play while your team is still set up in the offensive zone.

  1. The Spiral of Death

Exhausted players are usually bailed out by their goalie, who freezes the puck to let them get a line change or call a timeout, or else they are bailed out by so-called puck luck: a favourable bounce of one sort or another, which allows the exhausted players to clear the zone and start a line change. But if you bring on your fresh extra attacker, the exhausted opponent will become much less likely to be bailed out by their goalie or by puck luck. Their goalie will have a harder time freezing the puck as he is more likely to be screened during every shot and outmanned in every scramble in front of the net. Puck luck too is less likely to be helpful to the exhausted team because, of course, puck luck is not mostly about actual luck, rather it is about open space – which there will be less of – and about effort and skill – which exhausted players have much less of.

Thus, you may trigger a spiral of death: exhausted players will be much less able to get a line change in, and so will become even more tired, and so will become even less able to get a line change in, and on and on until finally the spiral reaches a point of conclusion: ideally, the game-tying goal.

So: Do you, reader (okay, you got me— do you, Jake), believe this principle I am trying to establish? Good. Then let the haggling begin.

 

Standard
North America

The Intersection of Yonge and Danforth

–  (This is an unpleasant article, sorry) – 

On the anniversary of the Yonge street van attack which killed ten people a year ago, Canadian media has been debating whether or not city streets should put in place more barriers to help keep pedestrians safe in the event of any future van attacks. This seems to be missing the point: Toronto had not one but two terrorist attacks in the past year, the Yonge van attack and the Danforth gun attack. Luckily – in the relative sense only – no more than thirteen people were killed. But one does not need to be a neurotic to consider what might have occurred if, instead of Yonge and Danforth, they had attacked Yonge-and-Danforth: Canada’s most crowded subway station.

If we have learned anything about terror attacks in the 21stcentury, it is that they are simple to imagine ahead of time (9-11, for instance, was neither the first quadruple airplane hijacking nor the first significant attempt to destroy the World Trade towers nor the first attempt to crash a hijacked airplane into a major Western landmark nor even the first major attack carried out by Al Qaeda that week), possible to prevent (hardening cockpit doors, for example), and can have secondary consequences nearly as damaging as, or plausibly even far more damaging than, the terrorist attack itself.

Now think back to Toronto. An attack at Yonge-Bloor station is frighteningly easy to imagine: a gunman, or gunmen, at rush hour, just as a train or trains are pulling into the station, videos of the result circulating online immediately afterwards. Aside from any damage such an attack might cause directly, it would potentially have even graver secondary impacts in the form of copycat attacks, car accidents, air pollution, political consequences, etc., not just in Toronto but also nationwide and beyond.

The point here is not to ask Canadian media to debate how to make areas like Yonge-Bloor safe from gunmen – that is not a discussion we would ideally need or want to carry out publicly. Rather, Canada’s intelligence agencies and governments should perhaps immediately address the problem. Waiting until a decade from now, when a relief subway line will hopefully be built and Yonge-Bloor will be expanded, may be taking a very big risk. Indeed, the station expansion may even increase crowding during construction for several years.

There could, maybe*, be relatively simple ways of reducing this threat. For example:

  1. Create a rush hour bus-only lane on certain streets (Yonge, the DVP, Don Mills, etc.), to reduce crowding on the Yonge subway in the years before a new subway line is built
  2. Do not allow able-bodied people to enter Yonge-Bloor station from the street during rush hour; widen pedestrian space on Yonge to make it easier for these able-bodied people to walk (or, perhaps, take a bus on Yonge) to get to neighbouring subway stations Wellesley, Sherbourne, Rosedale, or Bay. This would reduce crowding in Yonge-Bloor not only by reducing the number of people who use the station, but also because, with no able-bodied people entering the station during rush hour, staircases would be much clearer, and crowds would therefore disperse more quickly following the arrival of every subway train.

*I will admit: despite what I have written above, I know basically nothing about the risk of an attack of this kind, or how that risk should be addressed. [I will even cop to the fact that I may to some degree be using the fear of such an attack manipulatively, as a way to promote transit-friendly or pedestrian-friendly policies that I would want even if no such risk existed…]. I would, therefore, be very interested to learn what people who are actually knowledgeable think about this issue.

In any event, these two suggestions seem unlikely to occur; many would see them as (to quote Doug Ford) “a war on the car”. Yet maybe seeing them as a war on terror would be much more accurate.

 

 

 

Standard
North America

The Holy Month of Sports Begins

For sports fans in Toronto, the end of March Madness is the signal for the holiest month of the year to begin. It is a sort of sports Ramadan: every night fans overeat while watching either a Leafs or Raptors playoff game. It is a bittersweet holiday, to be sure – the Leafs have not won the Cup since 1967 or even a playoff series since 2004, and the Raptors have never made it to an NBA Finals. But this year hopes are high, as both Toronto teams are possible contenders. That is, assuming the dominant teams in each league, Golden State and Tampa Bay, can actually be beat. And assuming the Leafs can finally get past their nemeses, Zdeno Chara and the Boston Bruins, in round one, which begins at the Toronto Dominion Garden in Boston tonight.

update: dammit dammit dammit — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1xSyU7Klf8

Of the 15 cities with franchises in both leagues, none has ever won a Stanley Cup and NBA Championship in the same year. This year, three or four cities may have a chance to do so: Boston, Toronto, Denver, and the Bay Area (Oakland and San Jose). If Boston were to somehow pull this off, it would then have won a World Series, Superbowl, Stanley Cup and NBA Finals this year!

But it is the Bay Area that has the best odds, of course. Not only are the Warriors the best team in the NBA, but the San Jose Sharks had this season’s second-best record in the NHL’s Western conference. These two teams are opposites, in some ways. Whereas the Warriors are aiming for their third championship in a row, which would be their fourth in the past five years and the last before they move across the Bay to play in San Francisco next season, the Sharks have long been considered (fairly or no) the NHL’s playoff “chokers”. They have never won a Cup and, despite being maybe the league’s best team in the past decade or so (perhaps only the Penguins, who beat them in the Finals in 2016, have been consistently as good or better), they have often been upset in the first or second round of the playoffs.

update — Wow!! — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwFRg3-I9RE

After another playoff letdown last season year, the Sharks added star defenseman Erik Karlsson to their roster during the offseason. This has given them probably the best defenseman duo in the league, Karlsson and Brent Burns. Burns is also one half of the best bearded duo in professional sports–the other half being his silver-haired captain Joe Thornton, who now leads the NHL in career points. Thornton is himself also part of a third duo that defines this year’s Sharks: the Big Joe-Little Joe one-two punch.“Little Joe” Joe Pavelski, the Shark’s top scorer, started the playoffs off the right way last night in a rematch against Las Vegas, getting the first goal with his face.

In contrast to these veteran contenders from California, this year’s Colorado franchises are stacked with young players. The Denver Nuggets, who finished second in the Western Conference, had the second youngest roster in the NBA this season, led by 24-year-old Nikola Jokic and 22-year-old Jamal Murray. The Colorado Avalanche meanwhile are the second youngest team to make the playoffs this year, led by 23-year-old Nathan MacKinnon and 22-year-old Mikko Rantanen. Jokic and MacKinnon both had breakout seasons – jumping from all-stars to likely superstars – but their teams could face tough matchups in the playoffs’ opening round, against the San Antonio Spurs and the Calgary Flames. The Spurs may prove they don’t need a Duncan, Ginobili or Leonard to succeed; Calgary may be Canada’s best hope of ending a 25-year national failure to win a Stanley Cup.

update – Colorado beat Calgary: All 3 of the Canadian teams in the playoffs were eliminated in round one. The Denver-San Antonio NBA series is still ongoing 

For Toronto and Boston, it will be only a week or two before one of the two cities’ hockey teams is eliminated. The Leafs and Bruins are playing one another in the first round for the second year in a row. Boston won last year’s series in seven games, scoring four goals in the third period of the final game. The two also faced one another in 2013: Toronto came back from down 3-1 in that series and took a three-goal lead late into Game 7 – including a two-goal lead with just over a minute left in the third period! – before losing to the Bruins in overtime in one of the biggest blown leads in playoff history. The Bruin’s captain Zdeno Chara (who, at 42, is a year older than Tom Brady and yet still nearly leads the Bruins in ice time) will be facing the Leafs in the playoffs for the fifth time this year. The Leafs will have now faced Chara five of the past seven times they have made it into the postseason, starting all the way back in Ottawa in 2001.

Another story going into this year’s playoffs how big markets have been struggling. Of the 11 teams in New York City, Los Angeles, or Chicago, the only three to make the playoffs will be the Clippers, Nets, and Islanders (not exactly these cities’ top-name brands). The Clippers will be facing the Warriors in round one. Brooklyn will face Philadelphia, which could be a raucous intercity rivalry yet will likely result in Brooklyn’s defeat. The Islanders, however, are finally back! They will have home-ice advantage in the incredibly loud Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, where they won four consecutive Stanley Cups in the early 1980s, instead of in Brooklyn where they have been playing almost all of their regular season games. Despite losing their longtime top scorer John Tavares to Toronto in the offseason last summer, the Islanders finished second in a tough division, behind Alexander Ovechkin’s returning-champ Washington Capitals and ahead of the Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin three-time-Cup-winning Pittsburgh Penguins.

Small market teams, conversely, have excelled both in the NHL and in the NBA this year. The Tampa Bay lightning dominated the league in the regular season, with 62 wins, the most of any team since the 1995 Detroit Red Wings. They may, however, be beatable: their top defenseman Victor Hedman is coming off a recent injury that was likely a concussion, and their opponent the Columbus Blue Jackets are going into the playoffs on a 9-1-1 (the third ‘1’ is OT losses) hot streak. (Update: Columbus swept Tampa in 4 games). The best record in the NBA also belonged to a small market, Milwaukee.

If the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks end up playing the second-seeded Toronto Raptors, it will be a rematch of their second-round series in the 2017 playoffs, when the Bucks lost to the Raptors in the final seconds of Game 6 after having carried out a 25-point comeback in the fourth quarter of the game. If, on the other hand, Philadelphia and Boston end up playing one another, it will be a rematch of last year’s hard-fought second round. All of these teams are of course rejoicing that Lebron James is finally out of the picture.

Indeed, the premier superstars of both sports, Lebron and McDavid, will be spending this year’s festive season with their families. So too, in fact, will the rest of us be spectating from afar; laughing, eating, and praying for a miracle.

 

 

Standard
North America

The Three Card Monty: A Bus, Bike, and One-Seater Car plan for cities like Scarborough

One-seater electric automobiles may be on the rise, thanks to vehicle-sharing apps and range improvements in batteries. It is possible that these one-seaters will be a slothful and anti-social mode of transportation, like they are in Wall-E. Perhaps more likely, however, is that one-seaters will facilitate transportation that is actually more healthy and social than our existing four-wheel-dominated system. One-seaters may promote cycling, either via velomobiles (one-seater lightweight pedal-cars with an electric motor so that cyclists don’t have to break a sweat going uphill) or via the creation of more bike lanes in cities with relatively extreme climates (lanes which one-seaters would have mostly to themselves whenever the weather is not friendly to bicycles). One-seaters may also promote transit ridership, by making it easier to get to or from stations.

How then should cities prepare for one-seaters? While it would be nice if streets had three separate lanes for buses, bicycles, and one-seaters, this is not likely to be politically viable any time soon. Cities may need to be more creative, and more compromising, in seeking ways to promote one-seaters as an alternative for normal cars without unduly limiting transit or bicycle usage.

One possible way of doing this would be a sort-of seasonal three card monty, using a bus lane and an adjacent bike lane. When the weather is bad – say, during winter or a long heat wave – one-seaters would share the bus lane with buses and use the bike lane as a parking lane. This would allow a senior citizen to park close to his or her destination (or his or her bus stop), to avoid slipping on ice. It would also allow one-seaters to overtake buses at bus stops: if the bus pulls up to the curb at stops, a one-seater could pass the bus on its left. Similarly, it would give one-seaters the option of pulling over to let a bus overtake them.

When the winter or heat wave ends, the one-seater-parking lane would become a bike lane, usable by bicycles and one-seaters both. This would create less traffic for buses, at a time when the weather is nice enough to make walking to and waiting at bus stops a convenience. One-seaters and cyclists would however also be able to use the bus lane in order to overtake slower cyclists ahead of them, and to overtake buses at bus stops. Indeed, at times when buses do not run too frequently (nights, weekends), the bus lane would be left more or less open for one-seaters and the bike lane more or less open for bicycles.

It is true that bicycles would, comparatively, be the losers in this relationship. They would have to give up their bike lanes during the winter (or, in very hot climates, during the summer), and share them with one-seaters during the rest of the year. Nevertheless, given how few streets currently have bike lanes, cyclists might still benefit hugely from this relationship, particularly in climates in which bicycling tends to be a seasonal pursuit.

Picture12

Let’s use a real-world example of where such a system could maybe be effective: Scarborough, Ontario. Scarborough is a suburb of Toronto, where the weather and distances people travel can be difficult for cyclists in the winter – and often in summer as well.

Unlike Toronto’s other suburbs, the shape of Scarborough’s coastline is slanted, giving the city’s main cycling path, the Gatineau hydro corridor (image above, map below), a diagonal shortcut route through the fairly strict grid pattern of the city’s streets. In a few years this corridor will be linked with the city’s newest half-subway line, the Eglinton Crosstown. The hydro/cycling corridor already connects, more or less, to a another subway line (at Kennedy Station), a hospital, a university, and, via the Don Valley, to downtown Toronto.

scarb

Another, narrower diagonal hydro corridor, meanwhile, which nearly links up perpendicularly with the Gatineau around Lawrence East SRT station (which may eventually become a SmartTrack GO Train station, even if the SRT rail line is closed and is not replaced with an LRT along the same route), could become a shortcut route in another direction.

If one-seater lanes were built in these diagonal hydro corridors, and if a three card monty bus/bike/one-seater system were implemented on a number of Scarborough’s main streets intersecting these corridors, then the suburb’s transit, cycling, and driving might be significantly improved. Ideally, it will one day become easy to ride a bicycle or a velomobile from U of T Scarborough campus all the way to U of T in the heart of downtown T.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Standard