North America, South America

Countries to Watch: El Salvador

El Salvador .png

This article is derived from an example of tailored research I made for Rosa & Roubini Associates. You can read a version of it here: Emerging Markets – El Salvador.

…And here’s an extract from the article:

While this story is indeed a negative one, this negativity also serves to obscure the potential of Salvadoran-Americans, a diaspora group that, when measured in size relative to the size of its home country’s population, is not exceeded by any other country’s diaspora within the US. (See chart above). The Salvadoran American population is currently estimated to be 2 million, 31% as large as the population of El Salvador.

Among other things, this means that, even if Trump does not extend the protected status of 195,000 Salvadoran Americans, remittances to El Salvador might still rise due to an increase in US wages generally; an increase Trump seems committed to even if it means damaging US trade relationships, environmental regulations, and fiscal discipline.

More important, however — indeed, perhaps the most important fact about El Salvador today — is the unique age profile of the uniquely large Salvadoran diaspora living within the United States. The diaspora is a direct product of the terrible 1980-1992 civil war in El Salvador. Most Salvadoran American emigrants arrived in the United States during or immediately after the war. This means that the second generation of Salvadoran Americans, the more than 1 million born in the US, most of whom are bilingual, some of whom will achieve­ the American Dream of getting rich quick, and none of whom were directly impacted by the civil war, is now coming of age. The big jump in US-born Salvadorans came in 2000: they are turning 18 years old this year.

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